| The percentage of production forest stands regenerated with Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) has substantially decreased in Southern Sweden from almost 40%, to below 15% over recent decades. This loss has primarily been driven by Scots pine’s vulnerability to browsing damage by large ungulates, with pine stands commonly replaced by the less palatable Norway spruce (Picea abies). The loss of pine stands is continuing unabated in this region, presumably aided by the lack of scientific attention given to the consequences for nature conservation and society. To test the extent and nature of these consequences we propose a four-year PhD project (planned for 2015-2018) consisting of empirical, interview, and synthesis approaches. We will: i. Contrast the biodiversity value in Norway spruce and Scots pine stands located on similar soil types, focusing on three major taxonomic groups - understory vegetation, epiphytic lichens, and bird communities – which capture a diverse range of trophic levels, taxonomic affinities, and ecological niches. ii. Evaluate the associated changes to aesthetic and recreational values. iii. Synthesize our results and identify potential tradeoffs or synergies in the resultant implications for nature conservation and landscape aesthetic and recreational values. To begin we will identify multiple spruce stands of different ages on sites typical of pine regeneration in the past, and nearby pine stands comparable in soil type, rainfall, management history, and age. To identify stands we will use GIS sourced information from National Forest Survey of Sweden, Swedish Forest Agency, The Geological Survey of Sweden and Swedish Land Survey. A pilot study conducted in March of 2014 has confirmed the effectiveness of the methodology. Epiphytic lichens and understory vegetation will be surveyed in these stands, with contributions from participating experts. Bird surveys will then be conducted using the point count approach for which the lead applicant has over 10 years of experience. To identify potential causal processes underlying observed patterns, we will survey a variety of stand-level characteristics associated with forest biodiversity and analyze the results (depending on data structure) using generalized linear/additive models and ordination techniques. To determine the implications for landscape aesthetics, images of landscapes resulting from different production scenarios of spruce and pine will be realistically rendered onto local settings to match that of human perception. This imagery will be used to elicit preference and perception responses in relation to spruce vs. pine dominated forests. The surveys will be analyzed using statistical models exploring links between tree species, aspects of accessibility, visibility, naturalness and people’s preference for aesthetic and recreation values, together with the socio-economic characteristics of the respondents. We will thereby identify the implications for nature conservation and landscape aesthetics from the continued loss of pine forests in southern Sweden, with these findings of direct relevance to forest managers and forest policy developers aiming to avert such outcomes. |