| This research aims to understand the effects of climate warming-driven shifts in pollinator communities, the timing of flowering, and their interaction on plant reproduction and plant community dynamics in the Swedish Arctic tundra.
The widely-acknowledged global decline in insect biodiversity, particularly pollinators, raises concerns due to their essential role in pollinating 90% of angiosperms. Their decline will likely lead to reduced seed production and possible population declines in the plants they pollinate. However, understanding how pollinator community changes affect plants reproductive success has so far been hindered by the lack of historical baseline data on pollinator community composition and plant reproductive output.
Climate warming also directly impacts plant reproduction, particularly through shifts in the timing of flowering. In tundra regions, late-flowering species are more sensitive to temperature than early-flowering species, thus shortening the overall flowering window under warming. This could heighten competition for pollinators among plants, affecting both pollinator populations and plant reproduction, although the interaction of warming, flowering time, and reproductive success is not well understood.
This study will use historical data, experiments, and novel technology (e.g., deep learning algorithms for analyzing images) to address these knowledge gaps. The research has three specific goals:
WP 1. Quantify pollinator community changes: Historical data from 1991 will be paired with contemporary re-surveys using the same methods (mark-recapture) to quantify changes in pollinator community composition and abundance over the last 30 years. Preliminary observations suggest significant changes in species composition, with previously rare species becoming more common.
WP 2. Understand the impact of pollinator community change: We will combine historical data on seed set in 67 plant species with new data collection to estimate changes in plant reproductive output over the last 30 years. We will further assess how shifts in pollinator communities affect plant reproductive success using data on pollinator community changes (WP 1) combined with pollen supplementation experiments. Preliminary data indicates significant pollen limitation in certain species, suggesting a possible decline in reproductive success linked to pollinator community changes.
WP 3. Determine the influence of shifts in flowering time on plant reproduction: We will investigate whether increased overlap in flowering time due to warming leads to greater competition for pollinators and thus reduced seed set in plants. The study will use existing and newly installed cameras to monitor flowering times and pollinator visits, employing deep learning techniques for efficient image analysis.
This study's findings will enhance our theoretical understanding of pollinator-plant interactions and provide practical insights for conservation efforts. Quantifying current pollinator populations and identifying vulnerable plant species will help target conservation strategies. The research will also enable predictions of future changes in plant community composition and abundance due to altered pollinator activity in the Swedish tundra. |